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[Tempatan] Malaysia tidak berisiko terhadap kemelesetan ekonomi - Tengku Zafrul

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Post time 17-5-2022 06:16 PM | Show all posts |Read mode
PUTRAJAYA: Malaysia tidak berdepan dengan risiko kemelesetan ekonomi, kata Menteri Kewangan Tengku Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz.

Menurut beliau, perbincangan berkenaan perkara itu ketika ini adalah bersifat pramatang memandangkan Tabung Kewangan Antarabangsa (IMF) telah menyemak semula unjuran pertumbuhan global kepada 3.6 peratus pada tahun ini.

"Walau bagaimanapun, kita masih bimbang terhadap risiko ke atas ekonomi seperti peperangan di Ukraine, harga komoditi yang tinggi dan pengetatan dasar monetari global. Maka, kerajaan perlu memastikan fiskal fleksibiliti pada masa hadapan dapat menguruskan risiko berkenaan.

"Jadi, ini sebabnya kita berhasrat untuk mengurangkan defisit fiskal secara beransur-ansur daripada 6.4 pada tahun 2021 kepada 6 peratus pada tahun 2022, selain merasionalisasi subsidi bersasar.

"Jadi, kegagalan untuk melunaskan obligasi hutang adalah risiko utama disebabkan oleh kemelesetan global tetapi tidak berisiko kepada Malaysia. Risiko ini dapat dikurangkan kerana separuh daripada hutang luar jika dibandingkan adalah kurang daripada tiga peratus dalam mata wang asing.

"Kita juga mempunyai lokaliti domestik yang mencukupi untuk membiayai sektor kerajaan dan swasta dari segi pinjaman dan keperluan," katanya dalam temu ramah Ekonomi Malaysia Suku Pertama 2022, bersama pemberita di sini pada Selasa.

Mengulas mengenai situasi ekonomi negara pada suku kedua tahun ini pula, Tengku Zafrul berkata momentum pertumbuhan Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) yang berada pada tahap positif, iaitu lima peratus pada suku pertama, dijangka berterusan.

Jelas beliau lagi, ekonomi Malaysia diramal berkembang antara 5.3 hingga 6.3 peratus pada tahun 2022, disokong oleh permintaan dalam negeri dan luar yang lebih baik.

"Kita dapat lihat aktiviti ekonomi dan pasaran buruh terus pulih dan sempadan antarabangsa pun telah dibuka.

"Jadi, InsyaAllah pelancong mula datang dan aktiviti perdagangan dan perkhidmatan pun akan meningkat. Ia akan membantu pertumbuhan dan langkah yang diumumkan dalam Bajet 2022 adalah bajet yang mengembang dan mempunyai kesan pengganda tinggi," kata Tengku Zafrul.

Katanya lagi, program Rancangan Malaysia ke-12 (RMK12) turut akan membantu poses pemulihan ekonomi negara.

Terdahulu, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) mengumumkan ekonomi Malaysia mencatatkan pertumbuhan lebih kukuh sebanyak 5.0 peratus pada suku pertama 2022, berbanding 3.6 peratus pada suku keempat 2021.

Pertumbuhan ini antaranya disokong oleh permintaan dalam negeri yang bertambah baik, pemulihan dalam pasaran buruh; pertumbuhan berterusan dalam permintaan luar; serta sokongan dasar yang berterusan.

https://www.astroawani.com/berita-bisnes/malaysia-tidak-berisiko-terhadap-kemelesetan-ekonomi-tengku-zafrul-361786



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Post time 17-5-2022 07:04 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Baca berita dekat Malaysia ni kena baca terbalik, kalu dia kata tidak berisiko, confirm berisiko punyerwwww
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Post time 17-5-2022 07:10 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Pppfttttt...Malaysia ni berurusniaga dgn alien planet Marikh ke sampai kalis kemelesetan?
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Post time 17-5-2022 07:11 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Lol je la
Mereka mmg x rase golongan kayangan
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Post time 17-5-2022 07:13 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
What da heck???
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Post time 17-5-2022 07:52 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Betul ke? ???????????????????????????????????????
Purcaya lah
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Post time 17-5-2022 07:59 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Depa kt atas tu mmg la xrasa kemelesetan ekonomi

Ni org2 kt bawah ni yg terasa… harga barang semua naik. Jadah nye?
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Post time 17-5-2022 08:17 PM | Show all posts
Edited by pengecatbintang at 17-5-2022 08:19 PM

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/05/16/insight---is-a-recession-looming

Insight - Is a recession looming?

16 May 2022

WHILE Malaysians are revelling with the economy reopening, many are seemingly unaware of recession clouds gathering over the rest of the world.
There is a clear sign of risk aversion in the market – demand for the dollar has been rapidly rising with the dollar index surpassing the 100-point mark, leading to the depreciation of other currencies including the ringgit.

The sudden slump in the value of the ringgit was also spurred by a sudden collapse of the yen, which triggered competitive devaluation in east Asia against the dollar.
The Japanese economy, trying to take off after the pandemic, seems to have “run out of runway.”

After many years of pumping money into the economy under quantitative easing, the Japanese economy does not seem to have achieved the economic rejuvenation that the stimulus was intended for.

Meanwhile, Malaysians appear to be blissfully unaware of the looming “train wreck” of recession approaching; the almost complete reopening of the economy and sense of return to normality had papered over any sign of the impending gloom settling over the rest of the world, according to former Inter-Pacific Securities head of research Pong Teng Siew.

Against the fears of recession, many view that it is premature to expect one soon, and that Malaysia, which is seeing demand for semiconductors and commodities, may have some growth momentum in the short term.

n the United States, the recession risks may be low, but fears are growing as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is determined to do what it takes to control inflation, currently at a 40-year high.

This includes raising interest rates until it hurts the economy, weakens demand and potentially puts workers out of jobs.

Following an initial 25 basis points (bps) hike, which had no effect on curbing inflation, the Fed pushed up the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50 bps.

The last time the Fed, under the late 12th chairman Paul Volcker, raised rates drastically and triggered a recession, was in the 80s when inflation hit 14.5%. US inflation in March stood at 8.5%.

A recession in the US will likely lead to negative and risk-off sentiment, causing foreign portfolio capital outflows, which will in turn, cause stockmarket weakness, net foreign selling in the bond market and currency pressures against the dollar.

Financial as well as foreign exchange markets will be closely monitored, said Maybank Investment Bank Bhd chief economist Suhaimi Illias.

That the Fed looks set on considerably ratcheting up interest rates may weigh on business sentiment and the housing market, while signs of US yield curve inversion have also set the market thinking of recession.

With the inverted yield curve, where short-term US Treasuries are paying higher interest rates than those in the long term, bond markets are flashing a warning sign about the long-term growth prospects of the US economy.

Yield curve inversion has often been an accurate predictor of recession. The impact will be significant – the US is the world’s largest economy and an important market for exports from Malaysia and emerging economies.

Over the past two decades, Malaysia’s gross domestic product growth has had a high correlation of 79% against that of the United States, said OCBC Bank (M) Bhd economist Wellian Wiranto.

The US economy has been accelerating significantly and its interest rate of 0.25%, prior to the first hike recently of 25 bps in March, was too low and has to be higher to reflect prevailing economic growth and inflation.

The risk of over-heating is real and dangerous; between 2003 and 2004, the FFR was kept at 1%, the lowest in 40 years, and by 2007 to 2008, sub-prime mortgage lending had collapsed.

Investors were pouring money into such lending and its derivatives like collaterised debt obligations to search for higher yields.

So this time, the Fed will have to strike a delicate balance between supporting the economy and avoiding the risks of overheating, said Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd chief economist Mohamed Afzanizam Mohamed Rashid.

Some view that the hawkish stance taken by the Fed is intended to soften demand, and it is premature to say that its tightening monetary stance will lead to a US recession.“But if a US recession were to develop, Asia will not be spared despite China’s easing stance, a policy undertaken to cushion its slowdown,” said Fortress Capital Asset Management Sdn Bhd CEO Thomas Yong.

US inflation may ease in the coming months with the release of its strategic oil reserves and potential sourcing of oil from Venezuela.

There is medium risk of a recession in the United States where employment is still strong, and the Fed has plenty of room to back off from its aggressive rate hikes, said Etiqa Insurance & Takaful Bhd chief strategy officer Chris Eng.

To be cautious, it will be good to get prepared in case something does go wrong and we land in a recession; it may be time to, among other things, land that new job and set aside some cash.





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Post time 17-5-2022 08:25 PM | Show all posts
pengecatbintang replied at 17-5-2022 08:17 PM
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/05/16/insight---is-a-recession-looming

Insig ...

US Federal Reserve

Mac 2022 naikkan interest rate 0.25%

May 2022 naikkan interest rate 0.50%

Expected  - Jun 2022 naikkan interest rate 0.50%/ 0.75% & mungkin tarik keluar duit USD50 - USD85 billion per month (starting june 2022) dari market..

Expected - July 2022 naikkan interest rate 0.50%

--

bila tarik keluar duit dari pasaran, duit da kurang mengalir dlm ekonomi..

ini akan accelerate recession


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Post time 17-5-2022 08:43 PM | Show all posts
Edited by pengecatbintang at 17-5-2022 08:47 PM

https://news.bitcoin.com/goldman ... ery-very-high-risk/

Goldman Sachs' Blankfein Advises Companies and Consumers to Prepare for US Recession — Says It's a 'Very, Very High Risk' – Economics Bitcoin News

Goldman Sachs Senior Chairman and former CEO Lloyd Blankfein has warned that companies and consumers should prepare for a recession in the U.S. He stressed that it’s a “very, very, high risk.”


Goldman’s Blankfein Warns About a Recession

Lloyd Blankfein, a former Goldman Sachs CEO who is now the firm’s senior chairman, warned about an impending recession in the U.S. in an interview with CBS News, aired Sunday. He stressed that companies and consumers should be prepared for it.


Blankfein served as chairman and chief executive officer of global investment bank Goldman Sachs from 2006 through September 2018. He remained chairman through December 2018 and is now senior chairman of the Goldman Sachs Group.


He was asked, “Do you think we’re headed towards recession?” Blankfein replied:

We’re certainly heading. It’s certainly a very, very high risk factor … If I were running a big company, I would be very prepared for it. If I was a consumer, I’d be prepared for it.


However, the Goldman Sachs senior chairman explained that a recession is “not baked in the cake,” noting that there’s “a narrow path” to avoid it.


Commenting on the Federal Reserve’s response to inflation, he said, “I think they’re responding well.” He added, “I think the Fed has very powerful tools.”


Blankfein was asked if the Fed is doing what’s needed to control inflation. He replied: “there’s an imbalance, too much demand. And what you have to do is you have to slow down that demand.” The former Goldman CEO elaborated:


You have to slow down the economy. And so they’re going to have to raise rates. They’re going to have to curtail, hopefully reduce the number of positions that are unopened … and increase the size of the labor force.


“This inflation, some of it is sticky … we have something like 8% inflation. Some of that is transitory [and] will go away. You know, eventually, the war in Ukraine will be over. Some of the supply chain shocks will go away, but some of it will be a little bit stickier and will be with us for a while,” he concluded.


A number of analysts have predicted that the U.S. will be in recession. Deutsche Bank said there will be a major U.S. recession next year. Blankfein’s own investment bank, Goldman Sachs, said the odds of a recession happening in two years is 35%. Furthermore, Bank of America‘s strategist warned in April that a “recession shock” is coming.





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Post time 17-5-2022 08:50 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
pengecatbintang replied at 17-5-2022 08:25 PM
US Federal Reserve

Mac 2022 naikkan interest rate 0.25%

Apa maksud tarik keluar dari pasaran nie bang? Gov US beli balik dollar US ke?
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Post time 17-5-2022 08:52 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Baca boleh...


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Post time 17-5-2022 09:15 PM | Show all posts
kakikuDibibirmu replied at 17-5-2022 07:04 PM
Baca berita dekat Malaysia ni kena baca terbalik, kalu dia kata tidak berisiko, confirm berisiko pun ...

Alamak...
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Post time 17-5-2022 09:18 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
1 of 5 container ships are stuck outside congested ports in China. Supply chain backlogs grown…

jgn nk bohong laaaaa.
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Post time 17-5-2022 09:50 PM | Show all posts
kakikuDibibirmu replied at 17-5-2022 07:04 PM
Baca berita dekat Malaysia ni kena baca terbalik, kalu dia kata tidak berisiko, confirm berisiko pun ...

anak bulan syawal datang bulan tersenyum sinis sister

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Post time 17-5-2022 10:16 PM | Show all posts
Hebat                       
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Post time 17-5-2022 10:27 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
tu dia..confiden level tinggi.. apa ada hal..kwsp ada..bole korek lagi
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Post time 17-5-2022 11:07 PM | Show all posts
Edited by pengecatbintang at 17-5-2022 11:08 PM
lostnfaun replied at 17-5-2022 08:50 PM
Apa maksud tarik keluar dari pasaran nie bang? Gov US beli balik dollar US ke?

Central Bank aka Federal Reserve atau US Treasury jual Bon or Treasury Bill kpd bank2 komersil..

bank2 komersil dapat bon atau Treasury Bill, Federal Reserve US Treasury dapat cash..

cash tu depa simpan supaya x beredar di pasaran..

maknanya makin kurang duit (demand) kejor barang (supply)..
end result - recession

--

ini penah berlaku sampai impacted satu dunia 2015 -2018 dulu...

masa tu kan.. harga umah kat Mesia tetiba stagnant..

orang ramai window shopping jer.. x beli barang..

banyak bisnes cuma bertahan awalnya, tp terpaksa tutup kemudiannya..

tak gitu @silencekiller









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Post time 17-5-2022 11:11 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
apa la nasib marhaen
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Post time 17-5-2022 11:15 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Menteri hidup dalam dunia fantasi sendiri jadi macam ni lah....ayat dia putar belit...
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