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[Dunia] Top scientist ramal COVID-19 boleh merebak ke 2/3 dunia. Maaf si macai, fake news ni dlm English

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Author: R2D2       Show all posts   Read mode

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Post time 14-2-2020 05:25 PM | Show all posts |Read mode
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Research: Covid-19 could infect two-thirds of globe

Even if there were a way to reduce transmission by half, that would still imply that roughly one-third of the world would become infected. -NSTP/File pic
By BLOOMBERG - February 14, 2020 @ 1:55pm

AS THE number of Covid-19 coronavirus cases jumps dramatically in China, a top infectious-disease scientist warns that things could get far worse: Two-thirds of the worlds population could catch it.

So says Ira Longini, an adviser to the World Health Organisation (WHO) who tracked studies of the viruss transmissibility in China. His estimate implies that there could eventually be billions more infections than the current official tally of about 60,000.

If the virus spreads to anywhere near that extent, it will show the limitations of Chinas strict containment measures, including quarantining areas inhabited by tens of millions of people. WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has credited those steps with giving the rest of China and the world a window in which to prepare.

Quarantines may slow the spread, but the virus had the opportunity to roam in China and beyond before they went into effect, Longini said. The country boosted its count of those infected by almost 15,000 on Thursday after widening the diagnosis methods.

Longinis modelling is based on data showing that each infected person normally transmits the disease to two to three other people. A lack of rapid tests and the relative mildness of the infection in some people also make it difficult to track its spread, he said.

Reducing Transmission

Even if there were a way to reduce transmission by half, that would still imply that roughly one-third of the world would become infected, Longini said.

Unless the transmissibility changes, surveillance and containment can only work so well, Longini, co-director of the Centre for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida, said in an interview at WHO headquarters in Geneva.

Isolating cases and quarantining contacts is not going to stop this virus.

Hes not alone in warning of the possibility of a far greater spread. Neil Ferguson, a researcher at Imperial College London, estimated that as many as 50,000 people may be infected each day in China. Gabriel Leung, a public health professor at the University of Hong Kong, has also said close to two-thirds of the world could catch the virus if it is left unchecked.

The estimates of spread are part of a spectrum of possibilities that could unfold as the epidemic progresses, said Alessandro Vespignani, a biostatistician at Northeastern University in Boston. The next few weeks may provide more information about how easily the disease spreads outside China, particularly if more measures are put in place to control it, he said.

People change behaviours in response to disease, he said. This is kind of a worst-case scenario. Its one of the possibilities.

More data need to be gathered to gain a better idea of how far the virus is likely to range, said David Heymann, an infectious disease expert at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who oversaw the WHOs response to SARS in 2003. Were seeing countries outside of China that have been able to contain the outbreak pretty well.

Im not saying theyre wrong, he said of estimates from the likes of Longini and Leung. Im saying the models will be refined as more information comes to light. C Bloomberg
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Post time 14-2-2020 05:29 PM | Show all posts
bukan ka ahcai2 habaq virus ni tak bahaya....ka memang tak bahaya hangpa semua ja paranoid dok pi tutup muka....wakakakakakakkakakakakaa
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Post time 14-2-2020 05:46 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
macai PH bukan reti paham English.. diorng paham bahasa Melayu atau Cina je
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Post time 14-2-2020 05:46 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
mohon translate utk koneght
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Post time 14-2-2020 05:55 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Kan aku dah kata.. Data PRC bagi tak betul.. Depa ni byk sembunyi data.

Kes pertama dikesan pada 15/12/2019..14 hari incubate.. Jadi patient zero kena jangkitan pada 1/12/2019. Katakan hari 1 patient zero bagi jangkitan tu pada 3 org (ikut yg modelling WHO)  jadi dari 1-15 Dis 2019 patient zero dah bagi jangkitan pada 45 org.. Tu baru patient zero. Yg 45 tu bagi lagi kat org lain.. Aku dah la bab math dah la tak berapa cemerlang.. So angpa rasa setakat 60000 jangkitan PRC nak lockdown 5 bandar yg berkapasiti 50-60 juta org?
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Post time 14-2-2020 07:24 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Ala..mask iols da nak abes ni..kat shopee bnyk da aold out..cuma kat farmasi je iols blm jengah..
Agak2 kalau kehabisan stok,berkesan ke utk perlindungan kalau pakai mask dari kain tu ya..
Sebab iols pk,mask kain tu takat nak elak habuk masuk hidung bole la kot..
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Post time 14-2-2020 07:37 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
ellez replied at 14-2-2020 07:24 PM
Ala..mask iols da nak abes ni..kat shopee bnyk da aold out..cuma kat farmasi je iols blm jengah..
A ...

Sy nye mask n95 yg blh bsh ilang di ampaian dlm kwsn umah tu.. Nak cr yg n95 ni kat mn la.. Ari tu bl rm7 je.. Tgk kat shopee dah rm30.. Kalo pakai yg kain tu.. Dlm dia still kn pakai mask yg beli kat farmasi tu.. Kain tu mcm tuk protect habuk je.. Tgk video yg kat China dia org pakai 2lapis sblm kuar umah
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Post time 14-2-2020 07:37 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Sedikit berita baik utk menghentikan tetex dari terus menggelabah membaca berita kat atas tu...

Expert: Plasma of cured patients effective in treating coronavirus
Updated 14:16, 14-Feb-2020
By Guo Meiping
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Large amounts of antibodies have been identified in the plasma of some recovered coronavirus patients, Zhang Dingyu, director of Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital said in a press conference on Thursday.

Initial results have shown the effectiveness of plasma transfusion in treating patients infected with the novel coronavirus, he said, calling on recovered patients to donate blood to help others.

The China National Biotec Group (CNBG) on Thursday said in a statement posted on Chinese social media platform WeChat that they have successfully prepared special immune plasma products, and will use them in the clinical treatment of severe coronavirus patients.

Made from plasma donated by cured patients, the products were prepared after virus inactivation treatment, and antibody neutralization tests against the novel coronavirus and multiple pathogens, CNBG explained.

Over 10 patients have so far accepted to undergo the new special immune plasma therapy with their condition significantly improving 12 to 24 hours after the treatment.

CNBG said in the statement that most of the cured patients could produce antibodies that could kill the new virus. Currently, in the absence of vaccine and specific therapeutic drugs, the plasma therapy could greatly reduce the mortality of critically ill patients.

The company also released an initiative, calling on cured patients to donate plasma to save more coronavirus patients.

28 patients in Shanghai were discharged from hospitals on Friday. Among them, six were willing to donate plasma.

Shen Yinzhong, director of the medical department at Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, said that cured patients have to meet certain criteria before donating plasma.

"First, donors must be in good health we won't collect their plasma forcefully," Shen said. "They must donate voluntarily."

Shen said that he has been touched by the donors. "We will have more of the plasma since more patients are recovering."

(Cover image via VCG Photo)

Sumber CGTN.com
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Post time 14-2-2020 07:49 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Iols mmg x pcaya lgsg data China tu. Entah2 yg recovered tu pn sbenanya x recover saja diorg lepaskan utk biakkan virus tu pd org lain
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Post time 14-2-2020 09:54 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Pokcik Gates ni dah lama kabo:


Surprise2..
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Post time 14-2-2020 09:57 PM | Show all posts
yang borong facemask tu korang tau la bangsa mana

yang bangsa melayu pulak ada yang amsih perasan cool dan tak gelabah tetek

dah kena tipu kaw2 masa PRU dulu, kali ni kena tipu lagi pasal virus

hahaha dorang saje je suruh korang cool supaya korang tak borong habis bekalan dan korang tak merengek mintak cuti

yela korang kan kuli, dorang tokey

rugi la dorang kalo korang panik

hahahaha kena tipu lagi

tak serik2
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Post time 14-2-2020 09:57 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Prc pls come to malaysia
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Post time 14-2-2020 10:28 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Hahaa, please tangkap penyebar fake news in english ni menyebabkan paniccc bukan bimbang. Habis dah semua makanan kena beli pasar raya tinggal rak je.
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Post time 14-2-2020 11:31 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Risau jg
Allahu
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Post time 14-2-2020 11:35 PM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Berapa 50,000 punca kuasa dua? Kira2 roughly berapa hari covid infected dua org macam sistem mlm
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Post time 14-2-2020 11:58 PM | Show all posts
bangkem 2 minggu lepas dah borong makanan simpan stok

dah beli topeng muka gak stok cukup untuk jerebu tahun ni gak

padam muka siapa yang kena tipu, trying to be cool but look like a fool

biar mati mereput bak kata pepatah inggeris "natural selection"
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Post time 15-2-2020 12:00 AM | Show all posts
KIM.K replied at 14-2-2020 11:35 PM
Berapa 50,000 punca kuasa dua? Kira2 roughly berapa hari covid infected dua org macam sistem mlm

hahahaha perumpamaan yang bagus

yang bodoh2 je yang percaya dengan MLM

yang bijak tak kena tipu MLM

biar yang bodoh2 tu kena makan virus

makan budak makan budakkkk
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Post time 15-2-2020 12:00 AM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
Orix replied at 14-2-2020 07:49 PM
Iols mmg x pcaya lgsg data China tu. Entah2 yg recovered tu pn sbenanya x recover saja diorg lepaska ...

Ada video south china morning post tentang nurse yang sihat sendiri lepas berehat dan kuarantin di rumah... Sangat tak masuk akal. Dengan lessions banyak boleh pulak dia memasak dan cuci rumah. Propaganda china betul.
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Post time 15-2-2020 12:17 AM From the mobile phone | Show all posts
macai PH mana la reti baca English.. semua melalak fake news padahal benda betul
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Post time 15-2-2020 12:33 AM | Show all posts

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